A newly released “Global Intelligence Crisis” report from Citrini Research triggered sharp declines in software and payments stocks Monday, as investors reacted to stark warnings about artificial intelligence reshaping the economy. The report outlined a scenario in which advanced AI agents dramatically boost corporate productivity while reducing the need for human labor, potentially leading to mass layoffs and weakened consumer demand.
Citrini projected a hypothetical June 2028 downturn in which the S&P 500 falls 38% from its peak, unemployment climbs above 10%, and stress spreads through private credit and mortgage markets. The report introduced the concept of “Ghost GDP,” describing economic output generated by AI systems that appears in national accounts but does not meaningfully circulate through the broader economy.
Tech and Credit Card Stocks Slide
Technology giants and payment firms saw immediate pressure. IBM fell 13.1%, marking its steepest single-day decline in decades, while Microsoft, Oracle and Accenture also posted losses. Visa, Mastercard and American Express declined between 4% and 7% amid concerns that software-driven credit systems could face rising defaults.
Despite growing anxiety, some investors argue that AI deployment remains costly. Several tech executives have noted that AI agents must significantly outperform human workers before replacing them becomes economically viable, suggesting the transition may be slower than feared.
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