Bitcoin could reach a staggering $220,000 this year, according to a new forecast that compares the digital asset’s potential to that of gold. Analysts argue that as Bitcoin continues to gain acceptance as a store of value, a market valuation that rivals gold is increasingly “reasonable.”
Forecast Based on Gold Parity Model
The projection comes from a model that equates Bitcoin’s total market cap to that of gold’s $13 trillion valuation. With Bitcoin’s circulating supply hovering near 19.7 million, matching gold’s market cap would push Bitcoin’s price to approximately $660,000.
But the forecast’s authors suggest a more conservative outlook — if Bitcoin were to capture just one-third of gold’s market share, the price would land around $220,000, a figure they believe is achievable by late 2025.
“Bitcoin is following the classic trajectory of a monetizing asset,” the report states. “It’s moving from a speculative investment to a recognized digital store of value — the next logical step is closing the gap with gold.”
Macro Conditions Could Support the Rally
Analysts also point to several macroeconomic tailwinds:
- Global de-dollarization trends are accelerating, with central banks increasing gold reserves and some considering crypto as part of diversification.
- Institutional adoption of Bitcoin continues to grow, aided by recent ETF approvals and clearer regulations in the U.S. and Europe.
- Halving effects are expected to tighten supply, reducing miner sell pressure and increasing long-term holding incentives.
“If inflation remains persistent or geopolitical uncertainty rises, assets like gold and Bitcoin will likely benefit as hedges,” said Rachel Lin, an economist at Blockbridge Capital.
Skepticism Remains
Not all analysts agree with the bullish outlook. Some warn that Bitcoin’s volatility, potential regulatory crackdowns, and dependency on speculative capital could limit its upside.
Still, the sentiment among long-term holders remains optimistic. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that more than 70% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over six months — a sign of increasing conviction among investors.
A New Chapter in the Digital Gold Narrative?
As Bitcoin matures, many believe it’s becoming less of a “tech bet” and more of a macro asset, similar to gold.
“If gold was the analog store of value for the 20th century,” the report concludes, “Bitcoin is quickly becoming the digital equivalent for the 21s.”