El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has drawn attention to the growing excitement in prediction markets over whether the country’s Bitcoin holdings will surpass $1 billion by late 2025.
Bukele Reacts as Odds Surge on Kalshi
On Thursday, Bukele posted on X, referencing Kalshi’s prediction market, where the odds of El Salvador reaching the $1 billion milestone jumped from 20% to 38% in just a few hours.
“I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele wrote, fueling speculation among crypto enthusiasts.
Following Bukele’s comment, Polymarket launched a similar market, offering bets on El Salvador holding $1 billion in Bitcoin by December 2025, with odds set at 43%.
Kalshi has been tracking these bets since mid-August, with the odds of “before December 2025” initially sitting at 24% and “before November 2025” near 18%.
After the spike to 38%, the November bet dropped back to 27%, while December odds stabilized around 35%.
Current Bitcoin Holdings and the IMF Controversy
According to El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the country currently holds 6,282 BTC, worth approximately $709 million at Bitcoin’s price of $112,933.
If Bitcoin continues its upward trend, El Salvador could surpass $1 billion in holdings before 2025 ends, validating bullish bets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
However, this surge in optimism comes after a controversial claim by El Salvador’s central bank that Bitcoin purchases had stopped following a $1.4 billion IMF loan agreement in 2024. Despite this, Bukele has consistently posted about new Bitcoin acquisitions.
What It Means for El Salvador and Crypto Markets
The growing interest in these prediction markets reflects increasing confidence in Bitcoin’s price trajectory and El Salvador’s long-term crypto strategy. With Bitcoin trading above $112,000, hitting a $1 billion treasury value may be within reach if bullish momentum persists.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.