Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending Despite Long-Term Bullish Outlook
Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its traditional four-year halving-driven bull cycle, according to a senior macro strategist at Fidelity. While maintaining a long-term positive stance on the asset, the outlook suggests 2026 could bring a meaningful reset, with prices potentially bottoming near $65,000.
Fidelity Macro Outlook Signals Cycle Shift
Fidelity’s director of global macro research has indicated that Bitcoin’s rally to a $125,000 peak in early October may have marked both a price and time-based top for the current cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a rhythm of sharp expansions followed by year-long consolidations, often referred to as “Bitcoin winters.”
The assessment suggests that 2026 could become an “off year”, characterized by reduced momentum and a broad consolidation range. Key technical support is estimated between $65,000 and $75,000, a level seen as structurally important rather than a collapse scenario.
Several market observers believe recent volatility reflects a one-time liquidation shock, rather than a breakdown in fundamentals. As macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin valuations may realign with ongoing infrastructure growth and policy clarity.
Short-term santiment has weakened after Bitcoin briefly slipped below $85,000, triggering bearish social commentary. Data from derivatives markets also shows large traders positioned cautiously on Bitcoin, while selectively expressing confidence in other major digital assets.
While expectations for explosive gains may pause, the broader outlook frames Bitcoin’s potential 2026 drawdown as a cyclical reset, not a secular reversal, reinforcing its role as a long-term macro asset.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.