Despite aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by firms like MicroStrategy, analysts are warning that the overall spot market demand for BTC is weakening, which may challenge Bitcoin’s ability to regain strong bullish momentum in the near term.
Institutional Buying Can’t Fully Support the Market
Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) has continued its steady Bitcoin purchases, and Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing inflows. However, this institutional activity is no longer sufficient to offset the drop in overall spot demand, according to new on-chain data.
A recent analysis of market activity shows that over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has experienced a net demand contraction of approximately 895,000 BTC. This data points to a significant reduction in organic spot market participation, especially from retail investors.
Slowing ETF and Corporate Treasury Accumulation
Institutional demand has not only plateaued but is also decreasing. At the end of last year, ETFs acquired around 86,000 BTC, and MicroStrategy added 171,000 BTC. In contrast, recent monthly data reveals a sharp decline, with ETFs only purchasing 40,000 BTC, and MicroStrategy adding just 16,000 BTC.
This drop raises concerns about the momentum behind institutional accumulation, which many had expected to fuel a sustained rally. Without strong and consistent buying activity from both retail and institutional sides, Bitcoin’s price is struggling to break out of its consolidation range.
Demand Weakness Reflected On-Chain
Another telling indicator is Bitcoin’s nearly empty mempool, which typically signals a slowdown in retail transaction volume. A thin mempool suggests lower blockchain usage, which often correlates with waning investor enthusiasm on the spot market.
The combination of declining spot demand, weak mempool activity, and slowing ETF inflows paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin’s near-term performance.
Can Bitcoin Still Hit $200K?
Despite the bearish signals, some analysts remain optimistic. Standard Chartered still maintains a long-term target of $200,000 for Bitcoin, citing broader institutional adoption, growing interest from corporate treasuries, and long-term scarcity.
However, without a revival in overall demand growth, the market may remain trapped in a sideways phase until more liquidity and buying pressure return.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.