Prediction platform Kalshi has issued a formal update on how it will handle trades tied to the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market after the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. The company’s co-founder said Kalshi’s longstanding policy prohibits markets that resolve directly on an individual’s death, and the rules include provisions to prevent people from profiting from such outcomes.
Under the revised settlement terms, Kalshi will refund all trading fees associated with the Khamenei market. Positions that were opened before confirmation of Khamenei’s death will be settled based on the last-traded price prior to the confirmed death report, while positions opened after that point will be fully reimbursed so users do not lose money on the event. According to the company’s statement, the last trade occurred at 1:14 a.m. Eastern Time on March 1.
Kalshi’s clarification reflects its effort to balance regulatory compliance with fairness to traders, although some users have voiced frustration and confusion over the outcome and how compensation was calculated. Despite the backlash, the platform maintains that its policies were clearly stated in the market’s rules, and that no user should incur a loss as a result of the carve-out provisions.
Settlement Policy and Market Rules
The platform’s approach to this incident highlights the challenges of applying prediction markets to geopolitical events that involve life and death outcomes. By reverting to the last-traded price and refunding fees, Kalshi aims to adhere to its ethical stance and regulatory constraints while reducing the potential for users to profit directly from an individual’s death.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.