Bernstein Sees 87% Upside for Robinhood as Crypto Revenue Weakness Viewed as Temporary

Bernstein analysts project an 87% upside for Robinhood (HOOD) despite a 38% year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency transaction revenue. The firm frames the drop as temporary “crypto jitters,” noting that the stock’s 24% year-to-date selloff already reflects a near-term bear-case scenario. Bernstein maintains an outperform rating and a $160 price target.

Robinhood reported total net revenue of $1.28 billion in Q4 2025, a 27% increase from the prior year, driven by equities and options trading. Crypto revenue fell to $221 million, reflecting a 52% decline in trading volumes on the core app as the platform shifts toward diversified income streams, including subscriptions, interest, and prediction markets.

Prediction Markets and Robinhood Chain Drive Structural Growth

Bernstein highlighted strong performance in prediction markets, which accounted for roughly 14% of transaction-based revenue and 8% of total revenue. Q4 volumes reached 8.5 billion contracts, with early 2026 already seeing $4 billion in trades. A mid-2026 joint venture with Susquehanna, Rothera, is expected to further expand Robinhood’s presence in information and capital markets.

Looking ahead, Robinhood plans to prioritize family investing, private markets, and tokenized assets via Robinhood Chain, its Ethereum Layer 2 public testnet on Arbitrum. Analysts suggest accumulation between $60 and $75 as a strategic entry point, emphasizing that short-term crypto revenue weakness does not undermine the platform’s long-term growth trajectory.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.