Bitcoin Momentum Questioned as Onchain Data Shows Bearish Signals

Bitcoin Price Surge Driven by Futures, Not Real Demand

Bitcoin’s sharp rise in April is now facing scrutiny, with CryptoQuant describing the move as largely speculative. The asset climbed roughly 20% during the month, moving from near $66,000 to highs around $79,000.

However, the rally was primarily fueled by growth in perpetual futures activity rather than genuine buying in the spot market. According to research led by Julio Moreno, spot demand remained negative throughout April, signaling a lack of strong underlying accumulation.

Weak Spot Demand Signals Fragile Market Structure

This divergence between rising futures demand and declining spot demand is often viewed as a warning sign. Analysts note that such setups typically reflect leveraged positioning rather than sustained investor confidence.

Historically, similar conditions have appeared during weaker market phases, where price increases fail to hold once leveraged trades begin to unwind.

CryptoQuant also highlighted a drop in its Bull Score Index from 50 to 40, slipping back into bearish territory. The firm emphasized that sustained rallies usually require positive demand growth, which is currently absent.

While Bitcoin continues to trade near $78,500, analysts warn that without a recovery in spot demand, any move toward recent highs may struggle to hold, increasing the likelihood of a near-term correction.