Bitcoin Monthly Gains Signal Potential December Upside

Half of Bitcoin’s monthly closes over the past two years have ended in positive territory, a trend that one economist believes strengthens the probability of higher prices by year-end.

Economist Timothy Peterson recently noted that 50% of the last 24 months delivered gains. Based on historical patterns he tracks, that ratio implies an 88% likelihood that Bitcoin could trade above current levels within the next 10 months, placing his outlook around late December.

Bitcoin Historical Performance and Seasonal Trends

Data from market trackers shows Bitcoin recorded gains in six months of 2025 so far, while the remaining months closed lower. Historically, November has been the asset’s strongest month on average since 2013, posting mean returns above 40%.

At present, Bitcoin trades roughly 25% below its level at the start of the year, reflecting broader market pressure and cautious investor positioning.

Analysts Divided as Market Sentiment Weakens

Market forecasts remain mixed. Michael van de Poppe has suggested near-term strength could emerge, while veteran trader Peter Brandt argues the true market bottom may not arrive until late 2026.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently registered an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9, underscoring heightened caution even as long-term statistical models point to potential recovery.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.