Prediction Markets Accuracy Driven by Small Group of Skilled Traders, Study Finds

Prediction market accuracy appears to rely on a small group of highly informed traders rather than the broader crowd, according to new academic research analyzing trading behavior on platforms such as Polymarket. The study found that roughly 3.5% of traders were responsible for generating most of the meaningful price signals that help forecast real-world outcomes.

Researchers examined trading data spanning 2023 to 2025 and used repeated simulations of account activity to measure performance patterns. Their findings showed that while the majority of participants contributed trading volume, only a small fraction added valuable information that improved prediction accuracy. The remaining users effectively provided liquidity that allowed more informed participants to profit.

Profit Distribution Highlights Market Inequality and Regulatory Concerns

The analysis revealed that informed traders including market makers and skilled participants captured more than 30% of total profits across prediction platforms. On average, market makers recorded gains exceeding $11,800 per account, reflecting consistent advantages in timing and strategy.

Meanwhile, approximately two-thirds of users absorbed most overall losses, underscoring the uneven distribution of success in prediction markets. Despite rapid growth, with monthly trading volumes surpassing $15 billion across sectors such as politics, sports, and finance, regulators continue to monitor these platforms closely.

Concerns remain that insider knowledge could play a role in profitable trades, especially given the limited oversight and pseudonymous nature of many prediction market environments.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.