Prediction Markets Surpass $20 Billion in Monthly Volume Driven by Geopolitical Events

Prediction markets have surpassed $20 billion in monthly trading volume, a significant rise from $1.2 billion in early 2025, according to blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs. The platforms now host over 840,000 unique wallets each month, reflecting a tripling of active participants in just six months leading up to February 2026.

Geopolitics and Politics Lead Market Demand

The report highlighted that geopolitical conflicts, macroeconomic events, and U.S. political developments now account for the majority of trading activity, overtaking crypto native markets. Top contracts include leadership outcomes, conflict scenarios, and policy events, while U.S. domestic politics remain a core secondary pillar. Sports, entertainment, and crypto markets occupy smaller portions of total volume.

Market Manipulation Concerns

TRM Labs also noted instances resembling market manipulation, including coordinated wallets placing high-conviction bets ahead of major news and sweeping balances after resolution. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have introduced measures to curb these practices, enforcing restrictions on participants with access to non-public information and improving platform integrity controls.

Prediction markets now operate as consolidated platforms allowing diverse event contracts, providing a “super app” experience where users trade political, cultural, and financial outcomes seamlessly.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.