Quantum Computing Risk Could Affect One-Third of Bitcoin Supply, Research Suggests

A new analysis from ARK Invest and Unchained estimates that roughly 34.6% of the total Bitcoin supply could theoretically face risks from future quantum computing breakthroughs.

The report states that about 65.4% of the circulating supply is already protected from such risks, while the remaining portion includes coins stored in older address formats that may become vulnerable if quantum technology advances enough to break existing cryptographic protections.

Address Types Linked to Potential Exposure

Researchers estimate that around 5 million BTC, or roughly 25% of the total supply, could be migrated because of address reuse. Another 1.7 million BTC, about 8.6% of the supply, remains locked in early Pay-to-Public-Key address formats used during Bitcoin’s early years. Smaller portions are also linked to newer address structures such as Taproot.

Long-Term Timeline for Quantum Breakthroughs

Experts note that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography would require extremely advanced quantum systems with thousands of logical qubits and large computational capacity. Current research suggests such capabilities could emerge in the mid-2030s, giving developers time to explore quantum-resistant cryptography and potential network upgrades.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.