Stablecoin Usage Surges but Market Cap Growth May Lag, Says JPMorgan

Rising Stablecoin Adoption Driven by Payments Expansion

JPMorgan analysts say stablecoin usage is accelerating rapidly, particularly in payments, but this growth may not translate into a proportional increase in total market capitalization. Onchain transaction volume is estimated to be running at an annualized pace of $17.2 trillion, highlighting expanding real-world utility beyond trading and collateral use.

Higher Velocity Limits Market Cap Expansion

A key factor behind this outlook is rising “velocity,” which refers to how frequently the same stablecoin is used in transactions. According to analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, increasing efficiency in stablecoin-based payment systems means fewer tokens are needed to support growing transaction volumes. As a result, even if adoption rises sharply, the total market size may expand at a slower pace.

Market Growth Strong but Below Trillion-Dollar Expectations

The stablecoin sector has grown by nearly $100 billion over the past year, with total value exceeding $300 billion when including yield-bearing assets. Despite this momentum, JPMorgan maintains a cautious outlook, projecting the market could reach around $500–$600 billion by 2028—well below some industry forecasts calling for trillion-dollar valuations.

Regulatory and Regional Trends Shape Adoption

The passage of the GENIUS Act has contributed to increased transaction activity, particularly in payment use cases. While peer-to-peer transfers still dominate, merchant and business payments are expanding at a faster rate. Analysts also note that Asia continues to lead global stablecoin adoption, reflecting broader integration into everyday financial activity.