Suspected Insider Trading on Polymarket Nets $1.2 Million After U.S. Strike on Iran

Six newly created accounts on Polymarket earned an estimated $1.2 million after correctly wagering that the United States would strike Iran on February 28. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and purchased large amounts of “Yes” shares in a contract tied to the strike date.

One account bought more than 560,000 shares at roughly $0.108 each, securing a payout close to $560,000 when the contract resolved at $1. Another acquired nearly 150,000 shares at $0.20, generating a six-figure return. Trading volume on the specific contract approached $90 million, contributing to over $529 million wagered across related markets.

Market Reaction and Regulatory Scrutiny

Following President Donald Trump’s announcement of military operations, Bitcoin prices declined while oil futures on Hyperliquid surged. The trades have intensified scrutiny from regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously warned that insider activity on event contracts may violate U.S. law, as oversight of prediction markets tightens.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.