US Lawmakers Introduce BETS OFF Act to Target War-Related Prediction Market Bets

Two Democratic lawmakers have introduced legislation to curb potential abuse of prediction markets tied to sensitive government actions. The proposed Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act was put forward by Greg Casar and Chris Murphy following concerns over suspicious trading activity.

Concerns Over Unusual Bets on Iran Conflict

The bill comes after reports of “highly unusual bets” placed on platforms such as Polymarket, including wagers anticipating a potential U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Lawmakers suggested that individuals with insider knowledge may have used privileged information to profit from these events.

Expanding Efforts to Regulate Prediction Markets

The proposed legislation would prohibit betting on events where outcomes may be known in advance, including military operations and other government decisions. It builds on broader efforts in Congress, including a separate proposal from Adam Schiff to ban contracts related to war, terrorism, and assassinations.

Ongoing Debate Over Market Ethics and Transparency

Prediction platforms, including Kalshi, continue to operate in the sector, offering contracts on geopolitical and economic outcomes, even as scrutiny intensifies over transparency and potential misuse of insider information.

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