Analysts at Standard Chartered have reaffirmed their projection that the global stablecoin market will expand to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, even as they trimmed expectations for related U.S. Treasury bill demand.
In a recent report, the bank reduced its estimate for additional T-bill demand from stablecoin issuers to between $0.8 trillion and $1 trillion by 2028, down from an earlier $1.6 trillion forecast. Despite the downgrade, analysts described the recent slowdown in stablecoin growth as cyclical rather than structural.
GENIUS Act and Stablecoin Reserve Requirements
Dollar-backed stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are expected to remain significant buyers of short-term government debt under the framework established by the GENIUS Act. The law requires regulated issuers to hold high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-dated Treasurys, as reserves.
Although the total stablecoin market cap has hovered near $300 billion amid broader crypto market weakness, the bank maintains that regulatory clarity could support renewed expansion over the medium term.
Treasury Issuance Outlook and Bitcoin Projections
Standard Chartered suggested that strong demand from stablecoin issuers, combined with Federal Reserve reserve management purchases, could tighten front-end supply and encourage the Treasury to issue more bills.
The bank also adjusted its cryptocurrency outlook, lowering its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $100,000 while maintaining a long-term bullish stance through 2028.
Disclaimer
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