Stimulus proposal seen as short-term boost for Bitcoin and digital assets, despite legal uncertainty
Financial markets responded swiftly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to distribute a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans, funded by revenue from ongoing import tariffs. The proposal, unveiled Sunday on Truth Social, aims to channel tariff proceeds directly to households, excluding high-income earners.
“I want every working American to benefit from our success,” Trump said, calling the measure a “dividend of at least $2,000 per person.”
The plan, however, faces a significant hurdle: the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing whether such a distribution can legally be financed through tariff income. According to prediction market data, traders on Kalshi assign just 23% odds of the court approving the policy, while Polymarket places the probability near 21%.
Crypto investors see stimulus as a potential catalyst
Despite the legal uncertainty, the crypto community reacted positively. Market participants described the announcement as a short-term bullish signal for risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which often benefit from liquidity-driven stimulus measures.
“Stocks and Bitcoin only know to go higher in response to stimulus,” said investor Anthony Pompliano, noting that direct payments tend to push speculative demand higher across digital assets.
Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter estimate that roughly 85% of U.S. adults would qualify for the dividend, echoing the distribution model of the pandemic-era relief checks.
Long-term risks of inflation remain
However, some economists warned that while such payouts could boost markets, they would likely exacerbate inflation and debt levels. “If you don’t put the $2,000 in assets, it will simply be inflated away,” said Simon Dixon, a Bitcoin advocate and financial author.
The proposal could also add pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is already navigating a delicate balance between maintaining price stability and supporting growth.
As one analyst summarized, “The short-term effect of stimulus is euphoria — the long-term effect is inflation.”
For now, Bitcoin traders appear encouraged, viewing Trump’s tariff dividend as another liquidity driver that could support prices if implemented, even as the nation waits for the court’s final ruling.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.