The U.S. labor market surprised to the upside in June, adding 147,000 jobs, far exceeding Wall Street’s forecast of 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, contradicting expectations for a rise to 4.3%.
Key June 2025 Jobs Data at a Glance
- Nonfarm payrolls: +147,000 (vs. +110,000 forecast)
- Unemployment rate: 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected; May: 4.2%)
- Bitcoin (BTC) reaction: Slight dip to $109,500 after reaching a one-month high above $110,000 earlier
Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade for July
The stronger-than-expected job growth bolsters Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s patient stance on monetary policy. Despite calls from President Trump for immediate and aggressive rate cuts, Powell has maintained that the economy remains stable, warranting caution before easing.
“The Fed can afford to be patient,” Powell noted earlier this month, emphasizing the importance of incoming data before making decisions on rate cuts.
As of Thursday morning, Fed funds futures indicated:
- 75% odds of no change in interest rates at the July FOMC meeting
- 95% odds of one or more 25 bps rate cuts by September, per CME FedWatch
Market Reaction: Bitcoin, Stocks, and Bonds
- Bitcoin (BTC) pulled back slightly to $109,500 following the jobs release, but remains strong after breaching the $110K level for the first time since June 11.
- U.S. equities were mixed in early trading ahead of the early July 4th holiday close.
- Bond yields ticked higher, reflecting the lowered probability of near-term rate cuts.
What This Means Going Forward
The report reaffirms the resilience of the U.S. job market, even as inflationary concerns and political pressures swirl. It complicates the Fed’s path for rate cuts in the near term, particularly in July, despite prior speculation by some FOMC members.
The Fed will now likely wait for July CPI data and other macro indicators before committing to any easing policy.
Bottom Line
The June jobs data puts the Fed in a holding pattern. While markets still expect rate cuts later in 2025, the timeline is shifting further out. For crypto investors and traders, today’s report may signal less short-term monetary easing, potentially reducing bullish momentum unless inflation cools or job growth weakens in the coming months.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.