Analysts divided on whether October will bring another crypto surge
The long-awaited “Uptober” rally is facing doubts after Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto markets turned red on Monday, just nine days before the start of October. Despite historical trends pointing to strong gains during this month, some analysts warn that this year could be different.
Bitcoin slipped to a 12-day low of $114,270, while Ether (ETH) dropped below $4,300, losing over 4% in a single session. The selloff wiped more than $80 billion from total market capitalization, sparking debate on whether October will deliver its usual bullish momentum.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has posted positive returns in 10 out of the past 12 Octobers, earning the nickname “Uptober.” Notably, BTC surged 48% in October 2017 and 40% in October 2021, both during major bull runs. A repeat performance this year could push Bitcoin toward $165,000.
Signals That Support Uptober
Optimists remain hopeful. Kyle Chassé, a long-time Bitcoiner, pointed to a 92% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in October, according to CME futures data. “The easing cycle is basically priced in, and liquidity is on the way, which is the fuel Bitcoin and crypto thrive on,” he said.
Analyst Sykodelic argued that the market may dip further before rallying: “$112,500 is the number… after we get this over with, it’s on to new highs and the start of the explosive final leg that will push the market into euphoria.”
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintained that crypto markets will enter an “up only” mode once the U.S. Treasury’s liquidity drain completes, following its account balance surpassing $850 billion.
Skeptics Warn of Muted Gains
Others, however, see risks of disappointment. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, cautioned: “We expect any BTC rallies to be relatively muted given the extremely low implied volatility and upside skews, weakening inflow momentum, and presence of profit takers.”
Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE exchange, added that macroeconomic uncertainty could weigh on October: “We think the Uptober trend is less likely to occur this year given the macro uncertainty and the fact that September hasn’t seen markets fall.”
While October has historically been a green month for Bitcoin, this year’s backdrop of macro pressures, rate decisions, and profit-taking may complicate the narrative. For now, investors are watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize above key levels before October trading begins.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.