Prediction-market data sparks sharp moves across Bitcoin miners and crypto firms
Crypto-related equities climbed on Friday after prediction-market expectations for a December US interest-rate cut jumped to 87% — the highest level recorded this month. The surge in confidence, tracked on Polymarket, coincided with renewed momentum across leading Bitcoin-exposed companies.
Crypto Stocks React to Rising Rate-Cut Probability
Several US-listed Bitcoin miners led the advance, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining posting strong sessions and delivering double-digit gains over the past week. Meanwhile, Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the firm behind USDC, rising nearly 10% in early trading, while other major crypto names registered smaller upticks.
Bitcoin also benefited from the shift in expectations, climbing roughly 7% on the week after briefly sliding toward $82,000 earlier in November. The rise follows weeks of volatility driven by shifting signals from Federal Reserve policymakers.
Policy Comments Trigger Sharp Swings in Prediction Odds
Much of the dramatic repricing on prediction markets has been tied to remarks from Fed officials. The odds of a December cut plunged from 89% to 22% after the Fed chair stated that easing was “not a foregone conclusion.” Sentiment reversed again when another Fed official argued that weakening labor conditions and cooling inflation support considering a rate reduction next month.
These statements have become key catalysts for short-term market volatility and trader positioning.
Prediction Markets Expand Amid Growing Demand
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen accelerating growth as interest in event-based trading rises. Polymarket recently signed a multi-year partnership with TKO Group Holdings, expanding into combat-sports forecasting, while Kalshi secured $1 billion in new funding, lifting its valuation to $11 billion.
Rumors have also surfaced that Coinbase may be developing its own prediction-market platform, while Robinhood reported that prediction-market activity has rapidly become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams, with users trading billions of contracts since March.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.