Top XRP Holders Are Cashing Out at Record Pace
XRP, currently priced at $2.13, is facing significant downside pressure as its most profitable investors are realizing profits at a rate of $68.8 million per day (7-day average), according to on-chain data. These sellers — primarily those who bought before the November 2024 rally when XRP traded under $0.50 — are now exiting with over 300% gains.
This behavior mirrors patterns seen during XRP’s 2017 cycle top, which preceded a 90% market crash.
Realized Cap Data Reveals Market Is Top-Heavy
Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap — a metric reflecting the value based on the last transaction price of each coin — has formed since late 2024, making the current market structurally top-heavy.
This suggests that most XRP in circulation is held by newer investors, creating vulnerability during high-volatility sell-offs.
Such concentration typically increases the risk of a sharp correction, especially if short-term holders begin to panic sell.
SOPR and Realized Price Warn of Potential Reversal
The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for holders in the 3 to 6-month range has been in steady decline, indicating that many are now selling at or near breakeven. As of June 21:
- 3m–6m cohort average buy price: $2.28
- 6m–12m cohort average buy price: $1.35
With XRP hovering at $2.14, newer buyers are barely profitable, while the 6m–12m holders still hold a 35% profit cushion — but that margin could evaporate quickly if selling intensifies.
Bearish Pattern Points to $1.35–$1.60 Retest
A descending triangle pattern on the weekly XRP/USD chart signals a possible bearish breakdown, targeting the $1.30–$1.60 zone. If confirmed, this setup would align with the realized price metrics and SOPR pressure, suggesting a 35% decline is plausible.
However, a strong bounce from the 50-week EMA could invalidate this bearish setup and reignite a rally toward $3 or higher.
Conclusion
XRP is currently at a critical juncture. While whales and early investors are exiting with massive profits, the market’s top-heavy structure, weakening SOPR, and bearish technical patterns all hint at an elevated risk of correction.
Key support levels lie between $1.35 and $1.60, where long-term holders may begin to defend their breakeven zones. Unless XRP reclaims strength above $2.30 and invalidates the descending triangle, caution remains warranted.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.