$10 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday With Max Pain at $72K Far Above Current Price

Bitcoin is trading around $61,700 heading into Friday’s massive quarterly options settlement on Deribit sitting roughly $10,000 below the so-called max pain level of $72,000 that was supposed to act as a price magnet.

On Friday at 8:00 AM ET, around $10 billion worth of options contracts will expire on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange. The max pain level the price where options buyers lose the most and sellers gain the most sits at $72,000. Bitcoin is nowhere near it.

What Is the Max Pain Theory and Why Is It Failing

The max pain theory suggests that options writers actively push spot prices toward the max pain level ahead of expiry to maximize their gains. Crypto social media ran with the idea after bitcoin appeared to gravitate toward max pain levels during several settlements in 2020 and 2021.

But the recent drop from $67,000 to below $60,000 in the days leading up to this expiry tells a very different story. Options experts like Tony Stewart, founder of Pelion Capital, have long been skeptical of the theory in crypto markets and recent expiries have backed that view up.

The Expiry Still Matters — Just Not for Max Pain Reasons

Even if the pinning effect is not playing out, Friday’s settlement is still one of the biggest liquidity events of the year. Billions in contracts will either expire or roll over into future settlements — a process that typically brings heightened volatility regardless of where price ends up. Traders are watching closely heading into the weekend.