Anthropic And OpenAI Face A Rockier Path To Going Public

The road to blockbuster AI IPOs is turning bumpier than expected. SpaceX’s stock pulled back after its record debut, and that reaction, combined with a rough June for AI shares, has OpenAI reportedly considering pushing its listing to 2027. Anthropic, meanwhile, is dealing with fresh government scrutiny over model safety.

Big Valuations, Bigger Stakes

Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in a funding round this spring, while OpenAI sat at $850 billion. Whichever company lists first will likely set the tone for how investors value AI labs going forward, since both firms have spent years raising money privately and now need public markets to fund capital-heavy operations.

Market Pullback Complicates Timing

Nvidia and Palantir shares dropped sharply in late June, and SpaceX gave back some early IPO gains. Analysts point to massive planned tech spending, potentially $700 billion this year, as a source of investor unease while returns remain unproven.

Companies like Uber have raised concerns about AI usage costs, pushing OpenAI to consider price cuts. Cheaper models from Chinese firms are adding pressure, and Anthropic has accused Alibaba of improperly accessing its Claude models.

Regulatory Hurdles Ease Slightly

The government recently lifted export restrictions it had placed on Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models over safety concerns, a move seen as improving Anthropic’s IPO odds. OpenAI has also agreed to limit access to its newest models while working with regulators on a review process.

Anthropic is targeting $10.9 billion in second quarter revenue and expects its first profitable operating quarter, ahead of OpenAI on that front. OpenAI’s revenue tripled to $5.7 billion in the first quarter despite heavy cash burn.