Bernstein Projects Prediction Markets To Hit $10 Trillion In Yearly Volume By 2035

Prediction market trading could grow more than twentyfold over the next decade, according to a new forecast from research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which expects annual volumes to climb from roughly $410 billion this year to $10 trillion by 2035.

Financial Assets Set To Overtake Sports

Bernstein analysts project that trading tied to financial assets such as crypto, equities, and commodities will grow from about 12% of total volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035, pushing past sports as the industry’s largest category. Sports’ share is expected to shrink from 61% to 38% over the same stretch, as new product types like single-metric KPI markets and expanding perpetual futures contracts pull volume toward financial instruments.

Bernstein noted that clear US regulatory rules for sports prediction markets are unlikely before 2027 or 2028, pointing to ongoing conflicts between federal derivatives oversight and state gaming law.