Bernstein Slashes Bitcoin Miner Targets by Up to 54% After Democrats Win Texas

Bernstein has cut price targets on seven bitcoin miners by 35% to 54% after Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, who was heavily favored, in the Texas governor’s race. Hinojosa wants new data center approvals paused until the state sets rules protecting residents from higher power and water costs.

Why Texas Matters for Bitcoin Miners Moving Into AI

Bernstein says more than half of the power capacity held or planned by the miners it covers sits in Texas. Goldman Sachs estimates states likely to tighten rules hold about 45% of planned US capacity, with Texas near a quarter. Bernstein now values AI hosting earnings at 12 times forward EBITDA. Cipher falls to $15 from $23 and IREN to $55 from $100. Riot drops to $18, MARA to $10 and CleanSpark to $11.

Which Miners Look Better Placed

Morgan Stanley sees more uncertainty for Cipher, MARA and Galaxy Digital, and better positions for TeraWulf, Hut 8 and Applied Digital. Miners with approved power may gain value if rivals struggle to connect.

Goldman expects only temporary pauses in Texas, Georgia and Michigan.