Bitcoin Bear Market Could Be Entering Final Stage, Analyst Says

A widely followed crypto analyst says Bitcoin’s current bear market, now roughly nine months old, may be approaching its final stage after a key onchain metric crossed a notable threshold. According to CryptoQuant , the short-term holder cost basis has dropped below the long-term holder cost basis, a signal that has now held steady for three consecutive days.

What the Metric Actually Measures

The long-term holder cost basis used in this analysis excludes coins held for more than seven years, allowing it to better reflect economically active long-term investors rather than dormant supply. The short term holder cost basis has fallen sharply during the bear market, dropping from around $112,500 to roughly $69,000 as newer buyers absorb losses.

Signal Doesn’t Confirm a Bottom

This crossover does not mean the bear market is over or that Bitcoin has definitively bottomed. Instead, he described it as an indication that the market may be entering its later phase, a period where gradually accumulating positions through dollar cost averaging could become a more reasonable strategy than waiting for a precise bottom.

Looking ahead, a clear signal that a new bull market has begun would come if the short term holder cost basis rises back above the long-term holder cost basis. That shift, if it occurs, could also serve as a signal for investors to stop dollar cost averaging and shift strategy accordingly.