Bitcoin Enters High-Risk Zone as ETF Outflows Raise Institutional Selling Concerns

Bitcoin is moving deeper into what analysts describe as a “high-risk zone” as institutional demand weakens and selling pressure continues to rise.Analytics firm Swissblock said its Bitcoin Risk Index recently climbed to 33 out of 100, a level that points to growing market vulnerability.

According to Swissblock, the index tracks the balance between buying and selling pressure to measure how risky it is to hold or buy Bitcoin at a given time. The firm noted that after strong buying activity in March and April, market conditions shifted in May as institutional investors started reducing exposure.

The main pressure is coming from US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds, which are no longer absorbing market selling as effectively as before. The firm warned that if ETF demand remains weak, the risk index could continue rising.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Add to Selling Pressure

On-chain analytics data showed US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on most trading days since May 7, signaling continued institutional caution. Analysts said more than $2 billion has exited spot Bitcoin ETFs during the past two weeks, adding extra supply to the market without clear buying demand to offset it.

Market watchers believe investors are currently waiting for stronger economic or geopolitical signals before making major moves.

US-Iran Tensions Trigger Short-Term Bitcoin Dip

Bitcoin also came under pressure after reports that the United States launched new military strikes on Iran, despite ongoing diplomatic discussions between both countries.

Following the news, Bitcoin briefly dropped around 1%, sliding from above $77,000 to below $76,500. However, analysts noted the cryptocurrency continues to trade within a narrow range that has largely held for nearly four months, showing that traders remain cautious rather than fully bearish.