Bitcoin ETFs May Follow Gold’s Path of Boom-and-Bust Cycles, Analyst Says

Bitcoin exchange traded funds could follow a similar pattern to gold ETFs, marked by sharp gains followed by extended periods of decline and stagnation, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. He explained that both assets function as vehicles for non-yielding stores of value, meaning investor sentiment, rather than earnings or interest payments, drives their performance more than traditional stocks or bonds.

IBIT’s Rise and Fall Echoes Gold Fund’s Early History

Balchunas pointed to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which briefly surpassed $100 billion in assets under management in October before pulling back to around $60 billion. He compared this trajectory to the SPDR Gold Trust’s rapid rise in 2011, when it briefly became the world’s largest ETF before entering nearly eight years of underperformance as it worked to reclaim that level. He noted, however, that each subsequent cycle for gold ETFs has pushed the asset’s high water mark higher over time.

Bitcoin and Gold Both Facing Price Pressure in 2026

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% so far this year and about 50% from its October peak, trading near $63,000 on Friday. Gold has also declined in 2026, though its losses have been comparatively smaller. The broader crypto slowdown has also affected BlackRock’s digital-asset business, with the firm reporting a significant year-over-year drop in assets under management tied to crypto products. Despite the downturn, bitcoin and ether ETFs recently recorded their first weekly net inflows in several months, offering a modest signal of renewed investor interest.