Bitcoin Falls Toward $61,000 As Iran Ceasefire Collapse Sends Oil Above $75

Bitcoin dropped below $62,000 today after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran finished, triggering a surge in oil prices and renewed pressure on risk assets across markets.

Price Slides As Ceasefire Talk Turns Grim

Bitcoin fell as much as 2.5% on the day as markets reacted to Trump’s comments during a NATO summit press conference in Turkey, where he said he believes the ceasefire is over. Reports also emerged suggesting both the U.S. and Iran were weighing a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. WTI crude oil surged past $75 per barrel, its highest level since June 22.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift

The escalation quickly influenced expectations around U.S. monetary policy. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed rising odds of an interest-rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, while July is still expected to bring no change. On prediction platform Kalshi, users placed the odds of a 2026 rate hike at 55%.

Traders Eye $61,000 As Key Level

Analysts pointed to $61,000 as a crucial support zone for Bitcoin, predicting a possible retest of that level before renewed diplomatic talks could help markets recover. Despite the conflict reigniting, Bitcoin has so far avoided a deeper breakdown as long as the correction remains shallow.