Bitcoin Rally Continues as Derivatives Signal Caution on $84K Target

Bitcoin has extended its upward momentum, reclaiming the $78,000 level alongside a broader risk-on shift in global markets. The S&P 500 Index recently reached an all-time high, supporting bullish sentiment. Despite a 15% gain over the past 30 days, derivatives markets remain cautious about further upside in the near term.

Options Market Prices Low Probability of Breakout

Data from Deribit shows that call options with a $84,000 strike price expiring May 29 imply only a 25% probability of Bitcoin reaching that level. These contracts are trading at relatively modest premiums, reflecting limited conviction among leveraged traders.

At the same time, put options continue to trade at higher premiums, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. The 30-day delta skew has consistently remained above neutral levels, signaling that professional traders are hesitant to take on bullish exposure. Futures markets echo this sentiment, with the basis rate staying below the typical 4%–8% range, suggesting weak demand for leveraged long positions.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows Support Price

While derivatives traders remain cautious, spot market demand tells a different story. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted substantial inflows, including $1.3 billion in March and $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $100 billion.

Corporate accumulation has also intensified. Strategy acquired 56,235 BTC, Metaplanet added 5,075 BTC, and Strive purchased 929 BTC in the past month. Combined, these purchases exceed five months of projected mining supply, effectively reducing potential sell pressure.

Although derivatives markets reflect skepticism, sustained institutional accumulation continues to underpin Bitcoin’s rally. If spot demand remains steady, the probability of testing higher levels, including $84,000, could increase despite the current lack of bullish leverage.