Bitcoin Still on Track After Halving, 21Shares Says in New Market Report

Asset manager 21Shares dropped its mid year crypto market report on Wednesday, and the headline takeaway is simple bitcoin is still following the post-halving playbook and $100,000 remains the base case for year-end.

BTC is trading around $61,300 right now, sitting roughly 50%below its all time high of $126,000 hit in October 2025.

But 21Shares says this pullback is far milder than the 80%+ crashes seen in previous cycles, and bitcoin has never dropped below its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000.

Institutional Money Is Staying Put

Global crypto ETP assets under management sit at around $140 billion as of May 2026, down about 15% year-to-date. Total BTC held in ETP structures reached 1.25 million BTC, roughly 8% below peak levels. 21Shares says the drop is price driven, not panic selling underlying allocations have stayed close to cycle highs despite around $3 billion in net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs.

What Else the Report Covers

Prediction markets hit $57.5 billion in trading volume through May, already more than half of the firm’s full-year target. Annual volumes could push toward $200 billion if the FIFA World Cup and US midterm elections drive second-half activity.

DeFi total value locked sits around $140 billion, well short of the firm’s $300 billion forecast, with security incidents slowing capital inflows. On Ethereum’s Layer 2 side, Base, Arbitrum and Optimism now control 83% of total L2 DeFi TVL. Tokenized assets on public blockchains stand at $31 billion, led by $15 billion in tokenized US Treasurys.