Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears 60%, But Analysts Warn Recovery Could Stall

Bitcoin’s supply in profit has climbed to approximately 57.5% as of July 22, up sharply from a 2026 low of 46.2% recorded on June 30, according to CryptoQuant. The improvement suggests a growing share of Bitcoin holders are now sitting on gains rather than losses, though analysts caution it is too early to confirm a genuine market recovery.

Previous Recovery Attempt Already Failed Once

The analysis noted that between April 28 and June 1, long term holder SOPR held above 1 for 35 consecutive days while supply in profit reached 67%, only for both metrics to reverse. Since that breakdown, the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR has remained below 1 for more than 50 days.

What Needs to Happen for a Confirmed Recovery

Historical patterns suggest a genuine bear market bottom typically requires long-term holder SOPR to stay above 1 for an extended period alongside total supply in profit exceeding 64%. Bitcoin’s supply in loss also crossed above 50% in June, a threshold that has historically preceded major price cycle bottoms in previous years.

Mixed Demand Signals Add Uncertainty

Current market demand remains inconsistent, with weak spot market interest offset somewhat by a rebound in institutional Bitcoin allocation through investment products.