Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since 2022 Amid Ongoing Bear Market

Bitcoin has triggered a notable bear-market bottom signal for the first time since November 2022, according to analysis from CryptoQuant. The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio, which tracks the share of Bitcoin supply that last moved in profit or loss, dropped deeply negative before crossing back above its signal threshold, producing a buy trigger across several sessions in late June and early July.

Comparisons Drawn To Previous Cycle Bottom

Last time this signal appeared was during the bottom of the previous bear cycle in November 2022. Confirmation would require the ratio holding above zero alongside a rising price, while a slip back into negative territory without price support would represent the opposite scenario.

Supply In Loss Still Below Bear-Market Levels

One missing piece remains the level of Bitcoin supply currently held at a loss, which has not yet reached levels typically seen at previous bear market bottoms. The 90-day moving average of supply in loss could reach its reversal target within roughly two months, describing capitulation as an ongoing process rather than a completed event.

The signal points to growing seller exhaustion but does not rule out further price declines. He said a sustained recovery would require renewed demand, which could take additional time to materialize.