Bitcoin Supply Underwater Hits 50% as Analysts Warn of Possible Final Selloff

Over 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now trading at a loss, according to K33 research, marking a level historically seen near major market bottoms. The data shows more than 10 million BTC were last moved at prices above current levels, highlighting heavy unrealized losses across the market after Bitcoin’s sharp decline from about $82,000 to below $60,000.

The share of supply in loss has jumped from around 30% last month to over half today, reflecting increasing pressure on investors who bought at higher prices.

Historical Pattern Points to Possible Bottom Zone

K33 notes that in previous cycles—2011, 2018, and 2022 Bitcoin typically bottomed within weeks after crossing the 50% underwater threshold. However, each case still included a final decline of roughly 15% to 26% before recovery began.

The current downturn has also pushed Bitcoin toward its 200-week moving average, a level that has previously marked major bear market lows.

Sentiment Turns Extremely Bearish

Fear and Greed index show “extreme fear” sentiment, alongside record ETF outflows and weak momentum. Analysts suggest this phase may represent a long-term accumulation zone, though volatility and short-term downside risks remain.