Bitcoin’s ‘Calm Top’ Could Lead to Higher Price Floor, Galaxy Research Finds

Bitcoin may not experience the deep declines seen in previous bear markets, according to new research from Galaxy Research. The report suggests that the cryptocurrency’s unusually calm peak in October 2025 could help support prices and create a higher market bottom than many investors expect.

Galaxy Research Sees Stronger Bitcoin Floor

Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn analyzed Bitcoin’s past market cycles and found that peak-to-trough declines have steadily become smaller. Earlier cycles saw losses of 85% and 84%, while the 2022 bear market recorded a 77% drop. In comparison, Bitcoin has fallen about 51% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Thorn noted that the latest cycle top looked very different from previous peaks. Only two of eleven traditional market-top indicators were triggered, and the popular Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to flash for the first time. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value with realized value, reached 2.29, well below the 2.93 to 5.91 range seen during previous cycle highs.

Why a Calm Top Matters

According to Thorn, “The key insight: a calm top raises the floor.” He explained that Bitcoin’s network cost basis currently sits at 43.7% of its all-time high, compared with around 34%, 21%, and 17% in previous cycles. This suggests investors accumulated Bitcoin at higher levels, potentially limiting downside risk.

Bitcoin Bottom Estimates Still Vary

Galaxy places Bitcoin’s realized price at $53,600 and believes the cycle low could form between $62,000 and that level. However, its base-case scenario estimates a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. A deeper washout could push Bitcoin to $30,000-$37,000, while a milder decline could keep prices between $51,000 and $54,000.

Thorn also warned that the realized price can change if panic selling increases and more coins are sold at a loss.

Demand Remains a Concern

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin demand is still weakening. The firm reported a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across futures and spot demand, the largest contraction since January 2022. Its one-year demand indicator has also turned negative, signaling fewer buyers than a year ago.

Only four of thirteen major bottom indicators have been triggered so far, and previous cycle bottoms formed 12 to 13 months after a peak. Since the current downturn is only eight months old, analysts believe the search for Bitcoin’s final market bottom may not be over yet.