Bitcoin’s Profitable Supply Climbs to 55% but Still Trails Past Recovery Cycles

Bitcoin’s profitable supply rose from 46.2% on June 30 to a 2026 low point recovery of 58% by July 21, though the metric has since retraced to 55.2%, according to CryptoQuant data.

Previous bear market recoveries reached at least 64% profitable supply, with past cycle highs hitting approximately 69%, 64%, 83%, and 77%. Analysts say Bitcoin would need profitability in the 60% to 65% range to match the stronger recovery patterns seen in earlier cycles. Long-term holders continue accumulating while short-term holders sell near their cost basis, with the STH SOPR indicator currently at 1.0, signaling easing sell pressure.

Whale Behavior Adds Support

Holders of 100 to 1,000 BTC moved back into unrealized profit as prices rebounded, while the largest whale groups stayed profitable throughout the decline with only minor dips. This suggests limited large-scale distribution. A similar profitability pattern appeared in March and April, preceding short-term price advances, though analysts note the next phase depends on whether whales keep coins off exchanges rather than simply returning to profit.

Price Action Holds Steady

Bitcoin has consolidated after rallying from the low-$62,000s to nearly $66,700, with buyers continuing to absorb supply from newly profitable holders despite the recent pullback.