Brazilian Companies Rush Into Stablecoins After Lula’s Surprise Runoff Win

When Lula took the runoff on Sunday, local businesses reacted before the stock market could. Exchange Mercado Bitcoin said company accounts produced 78% of its trading that day, while individual investors made up only 22%. Tether turnover climbed almost 800% from the week before and more than tripled the average of the previous four Sundays. Bitcoin volume jumped 865%. The exchange said the main driver was firms protecting their treasuries, and added that corporate clients keep up to 15% of their assets on the platform.

Why Stablecoins Appealed to Companies

Traditional markets were closed, so stablecoins offered a way to hold dollars at any hour and in small amounts. Analyst Pedro Fontes said the vote strengthens the case for not depending only on the real. Worries centered on Lula’s spending plans, a planned ban on online betting that would cut tax income, high borrowing costs and a tougher Congress.

Brazil Market Reaction: Ibovespa and the Real

The fears proved justified on Monday. The Ibovespa fell 14%, its worst day since March 2020, and the dollar rose more than 8% against the real, its biggest daily gain since 1999. Three weeks earlier the picture was opposite, with the index up 7.7% after Bolsonaro led the first round.

USDT and USDC Volume Across Brazilian Exchanges

Biscoint data covering 10 venues showed USDT against the real up 150% and USDC up 318% from the prior Sunday. On Monday, combined stablecoin turnover hit 1.84 billion reais, about $350 million, and bitcoin trading rose more than ninefold to 1,336 BTC. On Binance, bitcoin against the real rose 370% while the global BTC/USDT pair dropped 25%. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real, reflecting a repricing of the currency.