Bubblemaps Flags Suspicious Polymarket Activity as Wallets Hit $2.4M Profit

Nine linked Polymarket wallets have reportedly earned about $2.4 million by correctly betting on US military events, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps. The accounts showed an unusually high 98% win rate across more than 80 bets, raising concerns about possible insider information.

How the Polymarket betting pattern worked

Bubblemaps says the wallets were closely connected and all focused on US military operations tied to the Iran conflict. They placed major bets just before key events, including the February 28 US attack on Iran, the reported killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the later US-Iran ceasefire announcement.

The wallets were funded through centralized crypto exchanges within a short time window. Investigators also found small losing bets on February 20, which may have been used to avoid detection.

Strong suspicion of inside information

According to Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman, while there is no confirmed proof of identity, the pattern suggests “someone with an unfair informational advantage.” He noted that funds were routed through exchanges and third-party services before being spread across new accounts, possibly to hide activity.

Four of the wallets alone reportedly earned around $400,000 each from betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran. The findings add to growing debate around insider trading risks in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, especially in politically sensitive events.