Cboe Global Markets Launches Prediction Market Platform Tied to S&P 500

Cboe Global Markets has launched Cboe Predicts, its first prediction market product, starting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500 index. Traders can now take yes or no positions on whether the index will close above or below a set price level.

The contracts are live on Interactive Brokers right now, with Charles Schwab and other retail brokerages expected to follow in the coming months.

Cboe Is Chasing Growing Demand for Outcome-Based Trading

According to JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion at Cboe, customers have been asking for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading products. The new contracts will operate within the existing US-listed options regulatory framework, giving traders institutional-grade liquidity and transparency.

Cboe joins Polymarket and Kalshi, which already offer similar S&P 500 daily closing price contracts.

Regulatory Heat Is Building Across the Sector

The launch comes as prediction market platforms face growing legal pressure. Kentucky recently sued five platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of running unlicensed gambling operations. Earlier this year US lawmakers also pushed to restrict political prediction market trading by government officials following insider trading concerns on Polymarket.