CFTC Prediction Market Rule Draws Divided Industry Response

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has received more than 1,500 public comments on its proposed rule for prediction markets, highlighting deep divisions across the financial, crypto and regulatory landscape.

Industry Support for CFTC Oversight

Several major players backed the regulator’s approach, arguing that existing frameworks are sufficient. Luana Lopes Lara of Kalshi said current rules are effective and called for clearer guidance to allow event contracts to continue trading under federal oversight.

Similarly, Justin Hertzberg of Polymarket supported the CFTC’s authority, while Andreessen Horowitz warned that state-level restrictions could limit fair access to these markets.

State Regulators Push Back on Jurisdiction

Opposition came from multiple state gambling authorities. Kevin O’Toole argued that prediction platforms resemble unregulated sportsbooks, while Mary Beth Thomas questioned whether such markets fall under federal jurisdiction at all. Michael Leara added that Congress never intended futures markets to include gambling-style contracts.

Concerns Over Political and Geopolitical Betting

Consumer advocates, including Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets, urged a ban on contracts tied to elections or geopolitical events, citing risks of manipulation and insider activity.

Platforms like Coinbase, Kalshi and Polymarket remain under legal scrutiny from several states, even as the CFTC moves to reinforce its authority. The final rule could shape how prediction markets operate across the United States for years to come.