Clarity Act Passage Odds Fall as Senate Calendar Tightens in 2026

The chances of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 have declined as lawmakers face a crowded Senate schedule ahead of the August recess. Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn lowered his estimate for the bill’s passage this year from 75% to 60%, citing limited legislative time rather than concerns about the bill itself.

The crypto market structure legislation previously advanced through the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote and was placed on the Senate calendar on June 1. However, a floor vote has not yet been scheduled.

Limited Floor Time Creates New Challenges

According to Thorn, the bill must pass the Senate and potentially return to the House before Congress leaves for its August break. After that, midterm election campaigning is expected to reduce available time for major legislative action.

Thorn’s odds stand slightly higher than those on Polymarket, where bettors see only a 54% chance the Clarity Act will pass in 2026.

Democratic Support Remains Key

A final Senate vote would likely require around 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles. Thorn expects Republican Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure, increasing the need for Democratic support. Issues related to ethics provisions and illicit finance rules remain unresolved, leaving negotiations ongoing as lawmakers work against a narrowing legislative window.