Congressman Moves to Keep Federal Candidates Out of Prediction Markets on Their Own Races

North Carolina Democrat Don Davis put forward a bill on Monday to stop people running for federal office from wagering on their own campaigns. The No Betting on Your Own Race Act covers candidates, spouses, dependent children and authorized campaign committees. Covered markets include bets on winning, staying in the race, or reaching a set vote share, margin or placement. Buying, selling, holding or otherwise dealing in these contracts, directly or indirectly, would be off limits. Davis compared it to athletes not betting on their own games. He said the aim is to curb market interference, insider trading and personal profit.

Penalties and Enforcement Rules

A violator would owe at least $10,000 per violation, or triple the net gain if that amount is higher. Indirect involvement counts too, such as urging someone else to trade or knowingly funding their position. The Federal Election Commission would publish a free candidate list, refreshed at least weekly, and candidates would be warned of the restrictions when they file. Only conduct after enactment would be covered.

Earlier Prediction Market Ethics Moves

In April, Kalshi fined three congressional candidates for betting on their own races and suspended each for five years. In June, Wisconsin Republican Bryan Steil proposed a separate measure limiting lawmakers, spouses and dependents from trading contracts tied to certain government actions, policies or political outcomes.