Galaxy Research Lowers Clarity Act Passage Odds to 50% as Senate Time Runs Short

Galaxy Research has cut its probability estimate for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% earlier this month. The downgrade comes as the Senate calendar tightens and negotiations have stalled without meaningful progress.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, said the reduction is primarily about timing rather than the bill’s substance. No floor date has been set and no motion to proceed has been scheduled both necessary steps before the bill can move forward.

Why the Clock Is Running Out

The Clarity Act is a complex piece of legislation that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture committee text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process and then House action on whatever the Senate produces. It also needs 60 votes to pass. For a bill with that many moving parts, the available runway is shrinking fast.

Thorn said Trump’s decision to withhold his signature from a housing bill until Congress passes the SAVE Act has made things worse adding another item to an already crowded Senate schedule and further squeezing time available for the Clarity Act. He warned that if Senate Majority Leader Thune does not announce floor time by early July, the bill could slip to September, where it runs directly into midterm election dynamics that make controversial votes hard to schedule.

It Is Still Possible — Just Not a Sure Thing

Despite the downgrade, Thorn framed 50-50 odds as reasonably optimistic for a bill of this size and complexity. A Senate aide told last week that Clarity remains a top priority for both Democrats and Republicans when the Senate returns in July.

The legislation is designed to split oversight of crypto markets between the SEC and CFTC, with the CFTC taking primary authority over most digital assets a framework the industry has been pushing for years.