Galaxy Research Slashes Clarity Act Passage Odds To 30% As Deadline Looms

Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate for the Clarity Act becoming law this year to 30%, down sharply from 50% just weeks earlier, as the Senate faces a shrinking window to advance the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.

Analyst Warns Time Is Running Out

Galaxy’s head of research said the downgrade reflects the narrowing timeline lawmakers have left before leaving Washington. Despite the Senate finally releasing bill text this week, the coalition needed for passage does not appear to be in place, and the bill now requires a last-ditch push and a broader legislative compromise to reach the president’s desk. The analyst described the calendar as no longer just an obstacle but the primary threat to the bill’s survival.

Democrats Say Latest Draft Still Falls Short

A group of seven Democratic senators said this week the newest 616-page draft, which merges work from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, still lacks sufficient ethics safeguards, consumer protections, and illicit finance provisions. Meanwhile, major crypto trade groups sent a joint letter urging Senate leadership to prioritize floor consideration of the bill.

Industry Voices Say Procedure Is The Real Obstacle

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said the bill’s biggest challenge is procedural rather than substantive, arguing it would likely pass if it reaches the floor given the limited time before recess.