Grayscale Says Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed Ahead of Usual Cycle Pattern

Grayscale’s head of research believes Bitcoin’s price may have hit bottom earlier than its typical four year cycle would suggest, pointing to macroeconomic factors as the main driver of price action.

Bitcoin has matured as an asset class and is now more influenced by broader economic conditions than in past cycles. He said that if the Federal Reserve avoids rate hikes and economic growth stays steady, Bitcoin’s price could have already found its floor, rather than waiting for a traditional cycle low expected around September or October.

Fed Decision and Regulatory Risk Remain Key

The Federal Reserve’s next rate decision lands July 29, with markets pricing a 66% chance rates stay unchanged, down from 88% a week earlier. Pandl also cautioned that if the Clarity Act fails to pass this year, companies like Strategy may continue reducing leverage, potentially pushing Bitcoin lower. Other analysts, including Lebit Mining Pool’s Jiang Zhuoer, expect a later bottom between October and December.