JPMorgan Projects Bitcoin Will Outperform US Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade

JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin for the first time in its 2027 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions report, which covers more than 200 assets. It projects a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin over the next decade, compared with 7.5% for large cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold.

Why JPMorgan Is Cautious on Bitcoin

Despite the bullish return estimate, the report says it does not make a case for Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier because its market correlations are unstable. JPMorgan describes it as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin Returns

The bank’s bull case puts annualized returns at 16.6%, while its bear case shows an annualized loss of 11.2%. The estimates weigh Bitcoin’s supply growth relative to money supply, its possible role alongside gold and network adoption.

Industry Reaction and Other Forecasts

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the inclusion, joking that Bitcoin has gone from being ignored and mocked to being named the best-performing asset of the decade. His firm has a far more bullish view, projecting in August 2025 that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.