JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Outperform Gold If Investor Hedging Declines

JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin could see stronger support relative to gold if investors begin unwinding their current hedging positions, according to a recent research note. Both bitcoin and gold ETFs experienced renewed inflows following the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, when investor interest in the so-called debasement trade returned. However, this momentum has cooled over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields climbed and a major crypto regulatory bill failed to advance in the Senate.

Gold ETFs Recover Faster Than Bitcoin

According to the report, gold ETFs have now fully recovered from earlier outflows recorded in 2026, while bitcoin ETFs have only recovered about half of their losses over the same period. Analysts noted that bitcoin ETF demand has softened further in recent days, potentially leaving more room for recovery if market sentiment improves.

Bitcoin Faces More Cautious Positioning Than Gold

While futures positioning remains elevated for both assets, suggesting continued institutional interest, the key difference lies in ETF short interest. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF remains near its highest level this year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF sits below its historical average. Analysts said this gap suggests investors remain more skeptical toward bitcoin than gold, likely driven by heavier hedging activity despite recent inflows.

Reduced Hedging Could Shift the Balance

JPMorgan also pointed to a higher put-to-call ratio for the bitcoin ETF compared to the gold ETF, reinforcing the view that investors are hedging more heavily against bitcoin. The analysts concluded that if this elevated hedging demand eases, it could create relatively stronger support for bitcoin compared to gold going forward, even as other market factors continue to influence both assets.