Lula Holds Narrow Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil Heads Into First-Round Vote

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in several polls released Saturday, the day before the first round vote. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, which exclude blank and null ballots, the top two advance to a runoff on Oct. 25. Most surveys suggest that is the likely outcome, with the leftist incumbent facing his right-wing challenger in a tight second round.

First-Round Poll Numbers

Among valid votes, CNT/MDA had Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 42.1%. Datafolha put them at 45% and 41%, AtlasIntel at 47% and 44.1%, and Quaest at 46% and 45%. Smaller candidates, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, stayed in low single digits.

Runoff Polls Show a Tight Race

The second round looks much closer. MDA gave Lula 47% to 43%, Datafolha 47% to 46%, and AtlasIntel 47.6% to 47%. Quaest showed Bolsonaro ahead, 44% to 42%. Margins of error ranged from one to 2.2 percentage points, so several of these gaps fall within the statistical margin.