Robinhood Prediction Markets Shift From Sports to Bitcoin, Gold and Oil Bets

A growing number of Robinhood customers are using prediction markets to trade views on asset prices instead of game results. JB Mackenzie, who leads futures and prediction markets at the company, told the NEXTPredict conference in New York on Thursday that contracts tied to bitcoin, crude oil and gold are growing faster than anything else on the platform, even though sports remains the biggest category by size.

How Price Contracts Work for Traders

These contracts ask a simple question, such as whether bitcoin will be above a set price at a certain time. Traders can take a side without owning the coin, and the contract price shows the odds the market gives that outcome. Robinhood offers them through its partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange. In September, its largest event contract was linked to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, not to a sporting event.

Short Contracts and Legal Pressure

Contract lengths have dropped from a week to a day and now as low as 15 minutes in crypto. Mackenzie likened them to zero day options, which can cause fast losses. State gambling regulators are also challenging sports contracts, which makes financial markets more important. Many users later try stocks, crypto, futures, options and retirement accounts, and Robinhood has 11 businesses earning over $100 million each, with prediction markets possibly growing fastest.