Samson Mow Says Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Analysts Push Back

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow said in a Sunday X post that bitcoin’s bottom is already in, arguing the traditional four-year halving cycle has sped up. He pointed out that bitcoin hit an all-time high just 37 days before the April 2024 halving, which he says means even cycle believers should conclude the pattern accelerated rather than following the old timeline.

Mow, known for his $1 million bitcoin prediction and work on national bitcoin adoption, said this makes historical cycle comparisons less reliable.

He isn’t alone in questioning the traditional cycle. After bitcoin’s pre halving peak in 2024, several analysts suggested growing institutional demand following spot ETF launches could be reshaping the usual pattern, though others argued it was too early to call.

Other Analysts Aren’t So Sure

Not everyone agrees with Mow’s call. Analysts pointed to a contrarian indicator based on the 50-week and 100-week moving averages forming a “bear cross,” a pattern that’s historically coincided with market bottoms.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research expects the bottom closer to $55,000, sometime between August and October. Arthur Hayes took a more bearish view, predicting a bottom near $40,000 within six months.

Bitcoin may still need to drop 15% or more, citing the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin has historically traded below its realized price before marking a true cycle bottom in every major bear market since 2011, something that hasn’t happened yet this cycle.